Study estimates thousands of deaths could be prevented by halving ultra-processed food consumption
New research published in The American Journal of Preventive Medicine and presented at this year’s International Congress on Obesity (ICO 2026) hosted by the World Obesity Federation in Mexico City, Mexico (15-17 July) suggests that between 23-38% of all cardiovascular deaths and 23-37% of all cases of cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease and stroke) are attributable to ultra-processed food (UPF) consumption.
And the Canadian study, by Dr Virginie Hamel and Dr Jean-Claude Moubarac, Center for Public Health Research, Montreal University, Montreal, QC, Canada and colleagues, also estimates up to 8,300 deaths could be prevented across Canada if the Canadian population halved its consumption of UPFs. The authors say that while actual estimates may vary slightly, similar results could be expected in other high-income countries.
Cardiovascular diseases (CVD), such as coronary heart disease and stroke, are among the leading causes of death in Canada, responsible for about 25% of all deaths annually. UPF intake is high in Canada and has been associated with increased risks of chronic diseases, particularly CVD. This study aimed to estimate the burden of CVD attributable to ultra-processed dietary patterns among adults in Canada.
Study methods
A comparative risk assessment model was used by the authors to estimate the burden of CVD, specifically, incident cases of heart disease and stroke, CVD-related deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) related to CVD, attributable to ultra-processed dietary patterns in adults aged 20 and older in Canada.
Model inputs included nationally representative dietary intake data from 2015, national health statistics on CVD, and Canadian data on CVD outcomes sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study for 2019. Hypothetical scenarios of reduced and increased UPF intake were modelled to estimate the potential health impacts, quantifying the number of avoidable or excess CVD cases, deaths, and DALYs under varying consumption levels.
UPFs account for up to 38% of CVD burden
The authors found that, on 2015, UPF constituted 43% of Canadian adults’ total daily energy intake aged 20 and above. Using a comparative risk assessment method, this study estimated that between 23% and 38% of all CVD events in 2019 were attributable to UPF intake, corresponding to 58,200 to 96,000 new cases of CVD (coronary heart disease and stroke), 10,600 to 17,400 CVD-related deaths, and 235,800 to 388,700 DALYs.
Modelling various scenarios suggested that reducing UPF consumption by 50% may have prevented 27,300 to 45,900 new CVD cases, 5,000 to 8,300 CVD-related deaths, and 110,900 to 185,200 DALYs in 2019 across the Canadian general population.
The authors say: “Ultra-processed food consumption may account for a substantial and potentially preventable contributor to the burden of cardiovascular disease in Canada. These findings reinforce the need for clinical and public health interventions aimed at reducing UPF intake as a key component of cardiovascular disease prevention.”
They add: “Our findings indicate a strong potential change in dietary patterns to prevent and improve cardiometabolic outcomes. Similar trials could investigate the extent to which reducing UPF intake in the diet could reverse or prevent CVD precursors/risk factors, including high blood pressure, high cholesterol, diabetes and obesity.”
Policy action needed
The authors explain that UPF dominate the food environment in Canada, making excessive consumption a widespread and largely involuntary phenomenon. They say: “While public education and individual counselling remain important components of health promotion, their impact is limited without broader environmental and policy support. To drive meaningful change in dietary patterns, comprehensive structural measures are essential. These include regulations on food taxes, front-of-package labelling, marketing restrictions and reformulation targets aimed at improving food quality.”
They point to several policy initiatives in other countries: several countries have implemented population-level policies targeting UPF with promising results. In Chile, front-of-package nutritional warnings reduced purchases of high-caloric foods by around a quarter; in Mexico, a 10% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages led to a 6.3% reduction in UPF consumption.
Results applicable in other high-income countries
The authors say the results are applicable in other high-income countries, saying: “Because Canada lacks prospective cohort data on the association between ultra-processed dietary patterns and the development of CVD events, the model used in this study relied on risk estimates from studies conducted in comparable high-income countries, including France, Italy, and the U.S. But for exact estimates, other countries could conduct their own study to see the association between UPF intake in their countries and CVD events.”
The scale of preventable harm identified in this study adds further weight to calls for governments to introduce structural measures - including fiscal policy, front-of-pack labelling and marketing restrictions - to reduce population-level UPF consumption.
World Obesity continues to advocate for such evidence-based policies as essential tools in reducing the global burden of cardiovascular disease.
Dr Virginie Hamel, Center for Public Health Research, Montreal University, Montreal, QC, Canada. Please e-mail for questions and interview requests. E) virginie.hamel.1@umontreal.ca
Tony Kirby in the ICO Media Centre. T) +44 7834 385827 (WhatsApp) E) tony.kirby@tonykirby.com
This press release is based on an oral presentation at the International Congress on Obesity (ICO) in Mexico City. All accepted abstracts have been extensively peer reviewed by the congress selection committee. The paper has been recently published in The American Journal of Preventive Medicine. As the full paper is available below, no abstract is provided. As it is an oral, there is no poster
The press release is also available in Spanish, please click here.
Read the full paper
The full paper 'Estimating the preventable burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to ultra-processed dietary patterns in Canada: A modeling study' is available via the link below.
Read the paper